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Back-to-the-future: a fresh policy initiative for fisheries and a restoration ecology for ocean ecosystems.

Pitcher TJ

Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, Canada.

'Back-to-the-future' (BTF) is an integrative approach to a restoration ecology of the oceans that attempts to solve the fisheries crisis. To this end, it harnesses the latest understanding of ecosystem processes developments in whole ecosystem simulation modelling, and insight into the human dimension of fisheries management. BTF includes new methods for describing past ecosystems, designing fisheries that meet criteria for sustainability and responsibility, and evaluating the costs and benefits of fisheries in restored ecosystems. Evaluation of alternative policy choices, involving trade-offs between conservation and economic values, employs a range of economic, social and ecological measures. Automated searches maximize values of objective functions, and the methodology includes analyses of model parameter uncertainty. Participatory workshops attempt to maximize compliance by fostering a sense of ownership among all stakeholders. Some challenges that have still to be met include improving methods for quantitatively describing the past, reducing uncertainty in ecosystem simulation techniques and in making policy choices robust against climate change. Critical issues include whether past ecosystems make viable policy goals, and whether desirable goals may be reached from today's ecosystem. Examples from case studies in British Columbia, Newfoundland and elsewhere are presented.

Published 16 February 2005 in Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, 360(1453): 107-21.
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