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The climate change commitment.

Wigley TM

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA. wigley@cgd.ucar.edu

Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1 degrees C. The CE warming commitment is 2 degrees to 6 degrees C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid.

Published 18 March 2005 in Science, 307(5716): 1766-9.
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