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Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution.

Root TL, MacMynowski DP, Mastrandrea MD, Schneider SH

Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6055, USA. troot@stanford.edu

Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).

Published 25 May 2005 in Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 102(21): 7465-9.
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