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Penetration of human-induced warming into the world's oceans.

Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Achutarao KM, Gleckler PJ, Santer BD, Gregory JM, Washington WM

Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 0224, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA. tbarnett@ucsd.edu

A warming signal has penetrated into the world's oceans over the past 40 years. The signal is complex, with a vertical structure that varies widely by ocean; it cannot be explained by natural internal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing, but is well simulated by two anthropogenically forced climate models. We conclude that it is of human origin, a conclusion robust to observational sampling and model differences. Changes in advection combine with surface forcing to give the overall warming pattern. The implications of this study suggest that society needs to seriously consider model predictions of future climate change.

Published 8 July 2005 in Science, 309(5732): 284-7.
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