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Mediated Modeling of the Impacts of Enhanced UV-B Radiation on Ecosystem Services.van den Belt M, Bianciotto OA, Costanza R, Demers S, Diaz S, Ferreyra GA, Koch EW, Momo FR, Vernet M Mediated Modeling Partners LLC. This paper describes the process of group model building to engage stakeholders, synthesize research results and assist in the development of hypothesis for global scale climate change issues in relation to UV-B and expressed in ecosystem service valuation. The objective was to provide a platform for integration of the various research components within a multi-disciplinary research project as a basis for interaction with non-scientific stakeholders. An integrated summary of the scientific findings, along with stakeholder input, was intended to produce a bridge between science and policy-making. We used a mediated modeling approach that was implemented as a pilot project in Ushuaia, Argentina The research was divided into two participatory workshops, data gathering and model evaluation. Scientists and the local stakeholders supported the valuation of ecosystem services as a useful common denominator to integrate the various scientific results. The concept of economic impacts in aquatic and marsh systems was represented by values for ecosystem services altered by UV-B radiation. In addition, direct local socio-economic impacts of enhanced UV-B radiation were modeled, taking Ushuaia, Argentina as an example. We worked with 5 global latitudinal regions focusing on net primary production (NPP) and biomass for the marine system and on 3 plant species for the marsh system. Ecosystem service values were calculated for both sectors. The synthesis model reflects the conclusions provided from the literature and from experimental research at a global scale. UV-B is not a significant stress for the marshes relative to potential impacts of sea level rise. Enhanced UV-B favors microbial dynamics in the marine systems that could cause a significant shift at a community level from primary producers to bacteria. In addition, synergetic effects of UV-B and certain pollutants potentates the shift to heterotrophs. This may impact the oceanic carbon cycle by increasing the proportion of respiration to photosynthesis in surface waters and thus the role of the ocean as a carbon sink for atmospheric CO2. In summary, while changes in the marine sector due to anthropogenic influences may affect global climate change, marshes are expected to primarily be affected by climate change. Published 18 April 2006 in Photochem Photobiol.
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