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Modelling the effect of climate change on recovery of acidified freshwaters: relative sensitivity of individual processes in the MAGIC model.

Wright RF, Aherne J, Bishop K, Camarero L, Cosby BJ, Erlandsson M, Evans CD, Forsius M, Hardekopf DW, Helliwell R, Hruska J, Jenkins A, Kopácek J, Moldan F, Posch M, Rogora M

Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Box 173, N-0411 Oslo, Norway. richard.wright@niva.no

The MAGIC model was used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of several possible climate-induced effects on the recovery of soil and surface water from acidification. A common protocol was used at 14 intensively studied sites in Europe and eastern North America. The results show that several of the factors are of only minor importance (increase in pCO(2) in soil air and runoff, for example), several are important at only a few sites (seasalts at near-coastal sites, for example) and several are important at nearly all sites (increased concentrations of organic acids in soil solution and runoff, for example). In addition changes in forest growth and decomposition of soil organic matter are important at forested sites and sites at risk of nitrogen saturation. The trials suggest that in future modelling of recovery from acidification should take into account possible concurrent climate changes and focus specially on the climate-induced changes in organic acids and nitrogen retention.

Published 20 June 2006 in Sci Total Environ, 365(1): 154-66.
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