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Species richness changes lag behind climate change.

Menéndez R, Megías AG, Hill JK, Braschler B, Willis SG, Collingham Y, Fox R, Roy DB, Thomas CD

University of York, Department of Biology, (Area 18), PO Box 373, York YO10 5YW, UK. rosa.menendezmartinez@zoo.ox.ac.uk

Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate.

Published 16 June 2006 in Proc Biol Sci, 273(1593): 1465-70.
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