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Global food security under climate change.

Schmidhuber J, Tubiello FN

Global Perspective Studies Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization, 00100 Rome, Italy. josef.schmidhuber@fao.org

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses.

Published 13 December 2007 in Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 104(50): 19703-8.
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