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Climate-driven range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters.

Wynn RB, Josey SA, Martin AP, Johns DG, Yésou P

National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK. rbw1@noc.soton.ac.uk

Global climate change is driving rapid distribution shifts in marine ecosystems; these are well established for lower trophic levels, but are harder to quantify for migratory top predators. By analysing a 25-year sightings-based dataset, we found evidence for rapid northwards range expansion of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus in northeast Atlantic waters. A 0.6 degrees C sea surface temperature increase in the mid-1990s is interpreted as an underlying controlling factor, while simultaneous northward shifts of plankton and prey fish species suggests a strong bottom-up control. Our results have important conservation implications and provide new evidence for climate-driven regime shift in Atlantic ecosystems.

Published 31 August 2007 in Biol Lett, 3(5): 529-32.
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