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Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model.

Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW, Folland CK, Harris GR, Murphy JM

Met office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK. doug.smith@metoffice.gov.uk

Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions. Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.

Published 10 August 2007 in Science, 317(5839): 796-9.
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